Liquidity
13-week cash flow forecast. Hieu Van Nguyen
A 13-week cash flow is the forecast a finance team lives in when cash is tight or a lender is watching. This one uses an invented company. Change how fast customers pay, when large payments land and how much credit is available, and see which weeks come close to the limit.
What this shows
Weekly receipts and payments by type
Beginning and ending cash with a credit line that draws and repays automatically
The minimum cash level and the weeks that cross it
Actual against forecast, so forecast accuracy is visible
Sample build: 13-week cash flow forecast
Quillfeather Garden Supply is an invented wholesaler of garden and patio goods. It sells to independent garden centres, buys ahead of the spring season, and has a revolving credit line. The forecast lists what comes in and what goes out week by week, draws on the credit line when cash would end under the minimum, and flags the weeks that cross a limit.
Invented company and invented numbers for illustration. Not data from any employer.
What to try
- Pick Combined stress and read the flags.
- Slide days to pay toward 60 and watch the line fill.
- Click a week heading to see what moves that week.
- Roll the forecast forward in Forecast accuracy.
Customers pay as they have been paying and every planned payment lands in its planned week. Customers are taking 42 days to pay in this case.
How to read it
- Direct method: every row is cash that moves in or out, not profit.
- The credit line draws when cash would end under the minimum and repays when cash is above the minimum plus $500K. Interest is charged on the balance at the start of each week.
- Cash plus unused credit line is the money available at short notice. The lender requires at least $2.0M.
Lowest cash plus unused line
$3.4M
Week 12. The lender requires $2.0M.
Credit line at its peak
$1.6M
Week 12, on a $4.0M limit.
Cash at the end of week 13
$1.1M
Minimum cash is $1.0M.
Weeks across a limit
0
Out of 13 weeks.
Ending cash and available liquidity, by week
Show the numbers behind the chart
| Week | Ending cash | Credit line | Cash plus unused line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | $1,500,000 | $675,042 | $4,824,958 |
| Week 2 | $1,238,826 | $675,042 | $4,563,784 |
| Week 3 | $1,376,653 | $675,042 | $4,701,610 |
| Week 4 | $1,603,937 | $0 | $5,603,937 |
| Week 5 | $1,718,537 | $0 | $5,718,537 |
| Week 6 | $1,177,737 | $0 | $5,177,737 |
| Week 7 | $1,042,937 | $0 | $5,042,937 |
| Week 8 | $1,000,000 | $331,692 | $4,668,308 |
| Week 9 | $1,000,000 | $970,771 | $4,029,229 |
| Week 10 | $1,000,000 | $1,257,771 | $3,742,229 |
| Week 11 | $1,000,000 | $1,321,185 | $3,678,815 |
| Week 12 | $1,000,000 | $1,563,891 | $3,436,109 |
| Week 13 | $1,121,786 | $1,563,891 | $3,557,896 |
Weeks that need attention
No week crosses a limit
Payments are shown as negative numbers so each column adds down. Shaded cells are past a limit. Click a week heading to see the biggest receipts and payments in that week.
| Period | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollars in thousands | 13 weeks | |||||||||||||
| Cash at the start | ||||||||||||||
| Beginning cash | 1,800 | 1,500 | 1,239 | 1,377 | 1,604 | 1,719 | 1,178 | 1,043 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,800 |
| Receipts | ||||||||||||||
| Open invoices, not yet due | 0 | 0 | 672 | 695 | 718 | 736 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 60 | 62 | 64 | 0 | 3,065 |
| Open invoices, 1 to 30 days past due | 630 | 649 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 53 | 55 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,495 |
| Open invoices, over 30 days past due | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 |
| New sales invoiced in the forecast | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 754 | 791 | 828 | 874 | 920 | 975 | 1,096 | 6,239 |
| Large customer payment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,200 |
| Other receipts | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 130 |
| Total receipts | 691 | 710 | 733 | 1,956 | 780 | 799 | 819 | 858 | 896 | 944 | 992 | 1,049 | 1,106 | 12,334 |
| Disbursements | ||||||||||||||
| Payroll | 0 | (400) | 0 | (400) | 0 | (400) | 0 | (400) | 0 | (400) | 0 | (400) | 0 | (2,400) |
| Suppliers: inventory and supplies | (470) | (470) | (470) | (470) | (470) | (600) | (620) | (650) | (690) | (730) | (770) | (790) | (800) | (8,000) |
| Large supplier payment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (650) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (650) |
| Operating costs | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (1,300) |
| Rent | (95) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (95) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (95) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (285) |
| Sales and use tax | 0 | 0 | (24) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (24) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (24) | 0 | 0 | (72) |
| Income tax estimate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (210) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (210) |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (240) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (160) | 0 | 0 | (400) |
| Term loan payment | 0 | 0 | 0 | (82) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (82) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (82) | (247) |
| Interest on the credit line | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (12) |
| Total disbursements | (666) | (971) | (595) | (1,053) | (665) | (1,340) | (954) | (1,232) | (1,535) | (1,231) | (1,056) | (1,292) | (984) | (13,576) |
| Result | ||||||||||||||
| Net cash flow | 25 | (261) | 138 | 902 | 115 | (541) | (135) | (375) | (639) | (287) | (63) | (243) | 122 | (1,242) |
| Ending cash before the credit line | 1,825 | 1,239 | 1,377 | 2,279 | 1,719 | 1,178 | 1,043 | 668 | 361 | 713 | 937 | 757 | 1,122 | |
| Credit line draw (+) or repayment (-) | (325) | 0 | 0 | (675) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 332 | 639 | 287 | 63 | 243 | 0 | 564 |
| Ending cash | 1,500 | 1,239 | 1,377 | 1,604 | 1,719 | 1,178 | 1,043 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,122 | 1,122 |
| Credit line balance | 675 | 675 | 675 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 332 | 971 | 1,258 | 1,321 | 1,564 | 1,564 | 1,564 |
| Cash plus unused credit line | 4,825 | 4,564 | 4,702 | 5,604 | 5,719 | 5,178 | 5,043 | 4,668 | 4,029 | 3,742 | 3,679 | 3,436 | 3,558 | 3,558 |
Week 4: what moves cash (month 1 of the forecast)
Biggest receipts
- Large customer payment$1,200,000
A single known payment from a large customer.
- Open invoices, not yet due$694,600
Customers paying invoices from the last four weeks before the forecast began.
- Open invoices, over 30 days past due$51,200
The slow tail of old invoices, the hardest cash to forecast.
- Other receipts$10,000
Rebates, scrap sales and small refunds.
Biggest payments
- Suppliers: inventory and supplies$470,000
Supplier invoices paid after 35 days.
- Payroll$400,000
Biweekly pay date, including payroll taxes and benefits.
- Operating costs$100,000
Freight, utilities, insurance and services.
- Term loan payment$82,500
Monthly principal and interest on the term loan.
- Interest on the credit line$974
Charged on the line balance at the start of the week.
Net cash flow is $902,326. The credit line repays $675,042 because cash is above the minimum plus the buffer. Cash ends the week at $1,603,937, the line stands at $0, and cash plus unused line is $5,603,937.
A forecast is only useful if you can measure how wrong it was. Roll the forecast forward four weeks to see invented actuals for the weeks that have passed, the miss on each line, and a re-based outlook for the weeks that remain. The actuals are the same every time.
Nothing to compare yet
Base case: the credit line peaks at $1.6M in week 12, cash plus unused line is lowest at $3.4M in week 12, and cash ends week 13 at $1.1M. No week crosses the minimum cash or the lender test.
How I use it
Deciding when to pay a large invoice or draw on the credit line
Telling a lender early which week is tight and what fixes it
Rolling the forecast forward each week and measuring how close it was